Democrats are growing increasingly concerned that polls may be underestimating the extent of Donald Trump's voter support, leading them to believe his chances of winning the upcoming presidential election in November are higher than what is reflected in headline polling numbers.
While most national polls show Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, with consistent but modest leads, some of her supporters are uneasy about her narrow advantage in three critical northern battleground states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states are seen as pivotal in her bid for the presidency.
In Pennsylvania, often regarded as the most crucial swing state, some polls show Harris with a lead of four to six points. However, others indicate a smaller gap, with Trump trailing by tighter margins. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the race appears even closer, with Harris holding just a 1-2% lead in recent polls. These concerns are fueled by Trump's strong performance in these states during the 2016 election when he won them by narrow margins and in 2020 when he lost by much smaller gaps than predicted.
Democrats' worries are amplified by the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which shows Trump performing better in three key Sun Belt states—Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina—than he has in recent weeks. The poll indicates Trump leading by five points in Arizona, a state Biden won by a slim margin in 2020, and four points in Georgia, which Biden also narrowly won. In North Carolina, Trump has a smaller advantage, leading Harris 49% to 47%.
Adding to the Democrats' concerns are projections that suggest Trump could win all seven battleground states, including Nevada, if he outperforms polling predictions by the same margins as in the 2020 election. A separate analysis by Focaldata, which factors in demographic variables to estimate voter likelihood, reduces Harris's lead across swing states by an average of 2.4%. Patrick Flynn of Focaldata points out that in a tight election, such a margin could determine the outcome, warning that relying solely on self-reported likely voters may lead to another polling error in Trump's favor.
One bright spot for Harris is that she is projected to win every swing state except Georgia if polling errors mirror those from the 2022 congressional midterms. However, many Democrats remain uneasy, noting that both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 were performing better against Trump in national and swing-state polls than Harris is now.
“That’s ominous. There’s no question that is concerning,” one Democratic senator told *The Hill*. “You’re working as hard as you can, no matter what. There’s not a lot more you can do than we’re already doing.”
Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman also voiced concerns, acknowledging that Trump remains a formidable opponent despite Harris's recent polling strength. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016 ... Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Fetterman said.
Further fueling concerns is the New York Times/Siena poll's finding that Harris's post-debate "bounce" against Trump was the smallest recorded by any candidate in recent presidential debates. According to the Times' polling analyst Nate Cohn, Harris gained just one point on average across 34 polls conducted before and after the debate, leaving the race essentially deadlocked. In contrast, past debate winners, including Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Joe Biden, and even Trump earlier this year, saw gains of at least two points after their debates.
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